Bitcoin ETF outflows surpass $300m, analysts warn of key price levels

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. recorded outflows of over $300 million this week as global macroeconomic events sparked uncertainty over short-term direction.

After closing the historically bearish September with over $1.1 billion in inflows, roughly $388.4 million moved out of the 12-spot Bitcoin ETF funds between Oct. 1 and Oct. 3 coinciding with the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, which pushed Bitcoin’s price to a weekly low of $60,047.

On Oct. 4, better-than-expected U.S. payroll data brought some relief to the market, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim the $62,000 level, while ETF products saw $25.59 million in inflows.

However, this recovery wasn’t enough to fully offset the impact of the three-day outflow streak.

Since Sept. 13, three consecutive weeks of inflows brought in about $1.91 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs, but this week’s outflows caused these funds to end the first week of October in negative territory, with $301.54 million flowing out, according to SoSoValue data.

Underlining the last trading day’s activity, Bitwise’s BITB saw the most inflows, while seven out of the twelve Bitcoin ETF products, including BlackRock’s IBIT, saw no movement.

• Bitwise’s BITB led with inflows of $15.29 million.
• Fidelity’s FBTC, $13.63 million.
• ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB saw its first inflow this week, bringing in $5.29 million.
• VanEck’s BTCW, $5.29 million.
• Grayscale’s GBTC recorded outflows of $13.91.

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Analysts point to key levels

Besides the ETF market, some selling pressure also came from Bitcoin miners, who, according to crypto analyst Ali, have offloaded approximately $143 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) since Sept. 29. See below:

#Bitcoin miners have sold 2,364 $BTC in the past six days, worth around $143 million! pic.twitter.com/1ZPo9sJPt7

— Ali (@ali_charts) October 4, 2024

The selling activity could intensify, according to Ali, who pointed out in a subsequent X post that Bitcoin had been trading below the short-term holders’ realized price, which currently stands at $63,000.

This price represents the average cost at which short-term investors acquired their Bitcoin, and when the market dips below it, these holders are more inclined to sell in an attempt to minimize losses—risking a “cascading sell-off” that could exert further selling pressure.

As such, Ali advised investors to watch the $63,000 mark as the next key level that BTC needs to conquer to avoid further losses.

On the other hand, Crypto analyst Immortal pointed to a slightly higher short-term target of $64,000, adding that if the flagship cryptocurrency manages to break above this key resistance level, it could signal the beginning of a strong bullish move.

However, on a longer time frame, experts remain optimistic, citing Bitcoin’s historical Q4 performance and expectations of U.S. rate cuts, which could drive prices toward the $72,000 range despite short-term volatility.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was hovering just above $62,200, marking a drop of over 5% in the past week.

Meanwhile, market sentiment appears to be picking up, with the Fear and Greed Index nudging back to a neutral 49, up from a more cautious 41 the previous day, per data from Alternative.

Read more: Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows streak hits three days, totaling $361.2m

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