History Suggests Bitcoin Will Not Close October Negative
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital maintains that Bitcoin will not close in the red in October, citing its historical performance.
The month of October has shockingly come with surprises as regards price expectations from the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Bitcoin is currently on a 3.78% price deficit from its closing price in September.
Bitcoin proponents were further stunned when the premier crypto asset dropped to a 3-week price low on Thursday. For context, Bitcoin fell to $58,900 yesterday, a price it last saw in mid-September.
Amid the swelling doubts among market participants regarding October’s outturn, crypto analyst Rekt Capital has assured that the month will not close negatively.
Analyst Finds Solace in Historical Data
In a tweet yesterday, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin has historically closed in the red twice in October. Bitcoin closed on a deficit in October 2014 and 2018, posting negative outturns of 12.95% and 3.83%, respectively.
Rekt Capital noted that these adverse closings were due to the crypto winter seen in those years after a bull cycle. For context, Bitcoin closed with a yearly deficit of 11.39% in 2014 while consolidating from the bull cycle peak at $1,242 in November 2013. Also, the digital asset closed 2018 at a 73.48% loss after a similar cycle that saw it reach a new high of $19,785 in December 2017.
Consequently, Rekt Capital stated the crypto market is currently not in a bearish cycle, as the April Bitcoin halving has historically ushered in bullish runs. Hence, he was increasingly confident that Bitcoin would not defy past patterns and close at a loss this month.
Notably, Bitcoin’s October performance backs the analyst’s claims. In the years the halving event occurred, Bitcoin surged in double figures on the tenth month. For instance, it respectively appreciated 14.71% and 27.7% in 2016 and 2020.
Bitcoin Monthly Performance
Bitcoin’s September Performance Fuels Optimism
Furthermore, historical data on Bitcoin’s performance in September has added to the optimism that the largest cryptocurrency will not close in the red this month. Notably, Bitcoin recorded an average 25% upsurge in October, when the preceding month closed positively.
In the past twelve years, Bitcoin surged 33.49%, 14.71%, and 28.52% in October, when September closed positively. The premier crypto asset recorded these monthly gains in 2015, 2016, and 2023, respectively, and analysts expect nothing different this month.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown signs of life in the past 24 hours after the dip, rebounding to $61,503 at the time of writing. Market expert Mike Alfred suggested that Bitcoin may have bottomed, as favorable macroeconomic metrics point to a continued recovery.
