All eyes on CPI and Fed, Is a Bitcoin correction coming in?
Global financial markets are bracing for another hectic week, as a series of major US economic events are ready to move them all. This major week comes after Donald Trump’s Presidential election win and FOMC rate decision.
A bullish momentum among investors after the Trump win left Bitcoin (BTC) to breach the $81,000 mark for the first time in history. The upward rally was not limited to BTC only, as major altcoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) jumped by 87% and 73% in the last 7 days. It is expected that key events lined up for this week, CPI Inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, can shake the traders’ sentiment.
CPI, PPI in focus
The week will begin with the release of the OPEC Monthly Report on Tuesday, followed by the US October CPI inflation data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will release the data on Wednesday (November 13). With inflation easing, expectations are for a drop in both headline by 0.2% and core 0.3% CPI. This could stall the Fed’s rate cuts and impact BTC’s rally.
Last month CPI came out to be 2.4%, down from previous highs. This reflects a steady inflation cooldown and a hotter-than-expected CPI data would signal persistent inflation.
On Thursday (November 14), the Labor Department will release initial jobless claims. With jobless claims ticking up slightly to 221,000 last week, the Fed’s recent rate cuts reflect worries over a weakening job market. It is a critical indicator of US employment health and higher claims might indicate a recession risk. However, fewer claims signal economic stability.
Friday’s (November 15) PPI report will shed light on producer-level inflation in the region. A spike here means rising production costs which can impact energy and hardware expenses for crypto mining. Meanwhile, a Higher PPI could be bearish for BTC and the market.
Retail sales data is expected to come on the same day. It will reveal consumer spending trends and a strong retail report will suggest economic resilience. As per the forecast, a 0.3% rise in October will signal a steady consumer demand.
Bitcoin Options skyrocket
With crypto markets closely linked to macro trends, each data release brings potential swings. Bitcoin went on to hit back to back fresh all-time highs of above $81,000, fueled by a wave of pro-crypto candidates securing victories in the US elections. Futures premiums are soaring hinting a strong investor confidence in the market.
The Fear and Greed index depicts “Extreme Greed” with 76 points in the market. The global crypto market cap jumped by another 2% over the last day to stand at $2.76 trillion. Its 24 hour trading volume spiked by 71% to hit $228 billion.
Open interest for Bitcoin futures surpassing $90,000 on Deribit surged to over $2.8 billion. CME futures premiums for BTC and ETH hit 14% post-election, doubling from pre-election levels. This jump shows high demand for call options which is clearly a bullish stance.
Bitcoin price is up by 18% in the last 7 days. BTC is trading at an average price of $81,159, at press time. It’s 24 hour trading volume is up by 65% to stand at $77.9 billion.
