Bitcoin Set to Hit ATH in 2025, Expert Predicts 77% Probability Based on Mathematical Data
According to a mathematical analysis by financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of reclaiming its all-time high (ATH) this year.
His outlook adds to other experts’ predictions, who see a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising M2 global liquidity as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s next bull run.
Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High in 2025?
In a detailed post on X, Krueger applied the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to estimate the probability of Bitcoin rising from its current price of around $85,000 to $108,000 by 2025.
For context, GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to represent the behavior of asset prices in finance. The model assumes that the logarithm of the asset price follows a Brownian motion with drift. In simpler terms, this means that the asset price has two components:
- A deterministic trend (drift) represents the asset’s expected return over time. It is often expressed as a constant percentage rate.
- A random component (stochastic part) accounts for the volatility or unpredictability of asset price. It is modeled as a Wiener process (i.e., random fluctuations).
GBM serves in various financial applications, including pricing options, forecasting future asset prices, and assessing portfolio risks.
For his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. This yielded a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $108,000. However, he then adjusted the model to incorporate the coin’s historical growth trend, applying a 40% power law drift.
“This increases the mathematical odds to 77%. ChatGPT ran a simulation which confirms this result,” Krueger stated.
The analyst’s revised forecast challenges figures on prediction markets. On Polymarket, the odds of BTC hitting an ATH before 2026 are much lower at just 52%.
“This is wrong and can be arbitraged by dynamic hedging,” Krueger claimed.
Notably, the odds are even lower on Kalshi. It estimates a 23% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new high of $150,000 in the same timeframe.
Meanwhile, sharing Krueger’s positive outlook, another analyst foresees an upcoming bull run, citing a strong correlation with M2 Global Liquidity and a weakening US dollar.
“April would be the month where Bitcoin marks the full bottom and starts the leg up and this has already begun this week!” he wrote on X.
He emphasized that M2 Global Liquidity reaching a new ATH is a bullish indicator for Bitcoin, which typically follows with a 75 to 105-day lag. Additionally, the DXY’s drop to a 3-year low, coupled with the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, further fuels optimism for Bitcoin’s potential growth.
“Now that M2 is rising strongly, the next step is the rotation of profits from gold into Bitcoin. This is already happening and explains why Bitcoin jumped from the super cycle entry zone at 74,000-76,000 to 86,000. It’s all playing out as expected,” he noted.
The analyst expects a short-term pullback to $80,000. However, he remains bullish long-term. According to him, BTC could reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, driven by currency debasement and Bitcoin’s fixed supply.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Currently, Bitcoin trades around 22.1% below its all-time high. BeInCrypto data showed that it declined 0.6% over the past day. At press time, BTC’s trading price stood at $84,338.
