China’s Bitcoin Ban: Odds of a Policy Shift in 2025 Shrink Further
China’s stance on cryptocurrency regulation continues to dominate discussions, especially as rumors circulate about a potential reversal of its 2021 Bitcoin ban. Recent data, however, suggests that the likelihood of China lifting its Bitcoin ban by March 31, 2025, has dropped significantly.
🚨 BREAKING
China is about to unban #BITCOIN ! pic.twitter.com/oPaTFYIziY
— Sensei (@SenseiBR_btc) January 24, 2025
In 2021, the People’s Bank of China imposed a nationwide ban on digital currency transactions, citing concerns over their role in facilitating financial crimes and disrupting traditional financial systems. Despite this, blockchain data from Chainalysis showed that over $50 billion worth of digital currencies left East Asia between 2019 and 2020, much of it linked to Chinese investors moving capital abroad.
This significant outflow, combined with high activity levels on local cryptocurrency exchanges, likely contributed to China’s strict crackdown on digital assets.
Related: European Central Bank Signals Potential Regulations on Bitcoin
Market Sentiment: Decreasing Odds of Bitcoin Ban Reversal
Data from Polymarket, which tracks probabilities related to policy shifts, highlights the declining optimism around China’s Bitcoin regulations.
- In December 2024, the probability of China reversing its Bitcoin ban stood at 20%.
- By January 2025, this figure had plummeted to just 2%.
Source: Polymarket
The drop in probability reflects a growing belief that China will maintain its rigid stance on cryptocurrencies, at least through March 2025.
Related: China’s Bitcoin Enigma: Why Beijing Is Hiding Its Energy Data
Bitcoin Holdings Across the Globe
While China enforces strict regulations on Bitcoin, the country still holds a significant amount of the cryptocurrency. A report on Bitcoin holdings by nine countries shows China and the United States leading global investments in Bitcoin.
Source: Bitcoin Treasuries
Other notable countries with Bitcoin reserves include Ukraine, El Salvador, and Germany, though their holdings are considerably smaller. Together, these nations hold more than 529,000 BTC, valued at approximately $55.3 billion.
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