Real Vision Analyst Jamie Coutts Issues Bitcoin Warning Amid Strong Dollar Rally, Says Macro Backdrop Soured

Real Vision’s head crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says that the US dollar is on the verge of foiling the rally for Bitcoin (BTC) and digital assets.

While the long-term bullish structure is still intact, Coutts says that a strong dollar is threatening to derail BTC’s movement in the short term.

“The macro backdrop has soured. Dollar strength is not good for Bitcoin. Ann Funding rates hit 40% 2 days ago. My liquidity framework is sensitive to the short to medium-term changes in momentum. In the long term, the picture is Bullish; in the Short term, they suggest caution.”

Source: Jamie Coutts/X

Zooming in on the dollar index (DXY), which pits the USD against a basket of other major foreign currencies, Coutts says it’s trading just below a critical resistance level at 106 that wouldn’t bode well for BTC if it breaks.

“DXY is right at the resistance level. A break above here would not be good for risk assets.”

Source: Jamie Coutts/X

Over the longer term, Coutts believes there is a strong relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, or the amount of money sloshing around in the world’s economy. The analyst says that regardless of shorter-term volatility, BTC should continue to run higher over the next year or two along with a rise in M2 money supply.

“Longer term, this is where I am at for this cycle; a 12-month forecast based on linear relationship with liquidity. But Bitcoin cycles are not linear. I think we go much higher than this.”

Source: Jamie Coutts/X